Two days after the US elections there seems to be some mood of optimism in America, at least in so called Blue America. Trying hard, I can't find much to be optimistic about. The politicians can't seem to decide between not staying the course in Iraq, and not not staying the course. Since when was there a course? The biggest obstacle to admitting that the Iraq war is an utter debacle, is the unpleasant fact that we can't admit what the war was for in the first place: the war was to ensure America's access to Middle East oil. Nothing else. It is about production sharing agreements, oil service contracts, and stationing carrier groups in the Persian Gulf. All of it hiding behind a curtain of stupid rhetoric. Don't tell me about terrorism, or about how they hate our way of life, 9-11, etc.
The troops went in, they seized the oil ministry. Bush declared victory. That was supposed to be the war. Then they noticed that there were 26 million Iraqis living there. Nobody could have predicted that, I suppose. And they discovered that Iraqis are either Shiite, Sunni and Kurd. I mean did they ever give a shit about Iraq? No way. They wanted that oil.
If the now abject Republicans could admit that America is in desperate straits to ensure its oil supply, then at least we'd all recognize the problem. And what to do? Fight for oil, steal it, or change our way of life? This would be the best national debate we could have.
I am not letting the Dems off the hook, they are in as much denial as the Republicans, and more clueless. At least the Republicans understand oil (in secret). What will happen if we can't admit the truth? Well we will stay in Iraq, perpetually baffled at all the senseless violence, oblivious to our own role in it. But of course Americans can't admit any truth as disturbing as an energy supply problem. So, we'll stay in Iraq, and the violence will escalate. We will probably partition Iraq. But it won't do any good! The Shia, and the Sunnis too, will still try to get their oil back. We still won't say what's really going on. We'll call them terrorists.
Iran might see that if America can be driven out, it could benefit from Iraq's resources, and Shia Islam would triumph. Chinese capital could be available to them. The only thing American occupation will accomplish will be the unification of Islam. The Arab world will rally to support Iran and Shiite militarism.
This is the sort of war Iraq can easily escalate into. Of course America has the threat of nukes, as does Israel, its only ally in this fight. But America may find that even "escalation dominance" will not guarantee victory against a unified Islam. And nukes could be used. If anyone thinks common sense will prevail they are deluded.